According to a recent report by MRI Software, the retail footfall in the UK is expected to decline in the months leading up to Christmas. This decline can be attributed to the ongoing financial constraints faced by households, including the increasing cost of living, interest rates, and inflation.
In September, footfall across various retail destinations such as high streets, shopping centres, and out-of-town retail parks experienced a significant decline of 3.2% compared to the previous month. This decline is the largest recorded since January.
Looking ahead, footfall is predicted to continue declining in October, although by a smaller margin of just 0.1%. It is then anticipated to remain relatively flat from October to November before experiencing a 5.1% increase from November to December. However, it is important to note that this increase is lower than the 5.8% rise observed in 2022.
After the popular shopping event, Black Friday, footfall is expected to rise by 6.5% in retail parks and by 10% in shopping centres during the month of December. In contrast, high streets are only projected to experience a modest increase of 2%.
Taking into consideration the overall trend from September to December, footfall in shopping centres is estimated to average 0.3% below the 2022 level, indicating a slight decline. On the other hand, high streets are expected to see a more significant decline of -1.7%. These figures shed light on the ongoing challenges faced by retail destinations.
Moreover, when comparing footfall to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, the gap is expected to widen slightly. In August, high street footfall was 13.4% below the 2019 level, while shopping centres witnessed a decline of 14.8%. By December, this gap is projected to reach -15.5% in high streets and -17.7% in shopping centres.
Overall, the forecast for retail footfall in the UK during the Christmas period presents a challenging environment for retailers. As households continue to grapple with financial pressures, it is crucial for retailers to adapt and find innovative ways to attract shoppers during this crucial time of the year.
Useful links:
1. Retail Gazette
2. Retail Week
