According to Springboard, a footfall tracking specialist, the Christmas shopping season in the UK is expected to experience a decline in footfall due to the cost of living crisis. This decline is projected to offset any gains made in 2022 thus far. The forecast indicates a month-to-month decrease in footfall at retail destinations across the country, with a 4.9% drop in September, a 2.5% drop in October, and a 0.3% drop in November, all influenced by the challenging economic conditions. However, there is a glimmer of hope for a recovery in December, with an estimated 6% increase in footfall during the Christmas trading period.
The anticipated increase in footfall in December is predicted to be 4.5% on high streets, 5% in retail parks, and a notable 10% in shopping centers. Despite the earlier declines and the modest overall rise in December, any progress made in the first eight months of the year will be nullified. The expected gap from the December 2019 footfall level will be a staggering -18%, the widest since February (-20.7%).
There is also concern about a potential decline in footfall between September and November, resulting in lower footfall compared to the previous year (-2.1% in October and -2.7% in November). However, December is expected to see a 4.2% increase compared to the previous year.
Diane Wehrle, Springboard’s Insights Director, explained that historically footfall has dipped in September due to a decrease in consumer demand following the end of the holiday season and the start of the school term. However, this year’s drop in footfall is anticipated to be more severe than in previous years due to consumers’ fears about the impact of rising energy costs on their household budgets. Additionally, the allure of shopping centers during the Black Friday trading period tends to draw shoppers away from high streets, contributing to the November dip in footfall.
Wehrle also noted that the potential increase in unemployment might further dampen shopping sentiment, resulting in more subdued increases in footfall during December compared to previous years.
Overall, the Christmas shopping season in 2022 may not be as prosperous for physical retailers as initially anticipated due to the current economic challenges faced by UK households. Retailers will need to adapt their strategies to attract customers and maximize sales during this crucial period.
useful links:
– Retail Gazette: Cost of Living Crisis to Impact Christmas Footfall
– BBC: UK Christmas Shopping: Why Is It Happening Earlier?
